Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Blumenau · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Joinville 1-0 Blumenau
Original prediction
Blumenau
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 40.5% | 27.4% | -13.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.0% | 25.3% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.94 | 30.5% | 47.3% | 16.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Blumenau
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
Blumenau has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JoinvilleLLWDL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BlumenauLDDLW
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
JoinvilleBlumenau
63.0Attack60.0
44.4Defence73.3
48.1Form73.3
52.7Power69.4
1.00xG1.90