Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Joinville · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (12%), 4-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Joinville 2-1 Barra
Original prediction
Joinville
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 12:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 40.8% | 55.5% | 14.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.1% | 23.2% | -5.8 pts |
| Away | 2.98 | 30.2% | 21.2% | -8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–012%
- 3.4–09%
Predicted outcome
Joinville
Probability
55.5%
Model confidence
55.5%
Joinville has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JoinvilleWLWLL
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BarraDDDWL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
JoinvilleBarra
100.0Attack29.6
100.0Defence22.2
100.0Form14.8
97.0Power25.6
2.98xG0.70