Johvi Phoenixvs
Luunja
COMPLETEDEstonia · Esiliiga B · 10/15/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Luunja · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-3 (6%), 2-3 (6%), 3-4 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Johvi Phoenix 1-3 Luunja
Original prediction
Luunja
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 13:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 51.7% | 40.1% | -11.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.41 | 20.4% | 19.1% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.23 | 27.9% | 40.8% | 13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–36%
- 2.2–36%
- 3.3–46%
Predicted outcome
Luunja
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Luunja has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Johvi PhoenixLWWWL
GF 12 · GA 14 · avg 2.40/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LuunjaWLLWL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Johvi PhoenixLuunja
72.0Attack78.5
21.5Defence34.4
51.6Form53.8
50.1Power54.2
3.21xG3.64