Esiliiga BEsiliiga B
Saturday, 1 August 202617:00Updated today
Legion

Legion

Home
L
vs
17:00
Johvi Phoenix

Johvi Phoenix

Away
W
GoalVio prediction
38% confidence
Legion(34%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Legion
34%
Draw
28%
Johvi Phoenix
38%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Legion
73
Johvi Phoenix
73
Defence
Legion
6
Johvi Phoenix
66
Momentum
Legion
0
Johvi Phoenix
100
Danger (xG)
Legion
1.80
Johvi Phoenix
1.80
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.16 xG for Legion and 1.98 xG for Johvi Phoenix — meaningful and strong attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 1-2 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Legion holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's strong attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.The attack-versus-defence matchup supports both teams scoring. Legion's Attack Score (73) exceeds Johvi Phoenix's Defensive Stability (66), and Johvi Phoenix's attack (73) similarly tests Legion's defence (6). Neither backline is dominant enough to prevent the other side from scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 3.14 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 1-2 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating elevated xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Legion's Attack Score (73) vs Johvi Phoenix's Defensive Stability (66) and Johvi Phoenix's attack (73) vs Legion's defence (6) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Legion)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Johvi Phoenix)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Legion)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Johvi Phoenix)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
LegionLegion
LLD
Johvi PhoenixJohvi Phoenix
W

Probability breakdown

38% confidence
Legion34%
Draw28%
Johvi Phoenix38%

Johvi Phoenix leads with 38% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Legion Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Legion host Johvi Phoenix in Esiliiga B. Legion have recorded LLLLWL in recent matches while Johvi Phoenix arrive with a run of LWLWWD.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.98 expected goals for Johvi Phoenix against 1.16 for Legion — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 📈 Recent Form Johvi Phoenix arrive in better recent form — 3 wins from 10 matches (LWLWWD) against Legion's 1. Form over the last 5–6 games is one of the most predictive short-term signals in the model, capturing momentum that longer-term averages can miss.
: ⚽ Attacking Efficiency Legion have averaged 1.36 goals per game recently while Johvi Phoenix have managed 2.31. Johvi Phoenix have been the more prolific side — a factor the model weighs in its Johvi Phoenix win projection.

Why GoalVio backs this

Johvi Phoenix are generating a commanding xG advantage — 1.98 projected against 1.16 for Legion. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.82 is the clearest signal in the model that Johvi Phoenix are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The model's projection is based on averages — individual moments of quality, tactical adjustments, or set-piece situations can always override statistical trends. Johvi Phoenix are favoured, but football rarely follows the script exactly.

Risk factors

  • Johvi Phoenix have been conceding 1.80 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Recent form

Legion

Legion

L
vs Tallinna Kalev II
5 Jul 2026
23
L
vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21
22 Jun 2026
14
D
vs Tulevik
16 May 2026
00
Johvi Phoenix

Johvi Phoenix

W
@ Tallinna Kalev II
16 May 2026
21

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Legion vs Johvi Phoenix?

GoalVio's model predicts Legion to win with 38% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Legion vs Johvi Phoenix?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Legion vs Johvi Phoenix?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Legion vs Johvi Phoenix?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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