Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ilirija · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-3 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jesenice 3-1 Ilirija
Original prediction
Ilirija
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.27 | 27.3% | 21.9% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.3% | 24.1% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 1.92 | 46.4% | 54.0% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–310%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Ilirija
Probability
54.0%
Model confidence
54.0%
Ilirija has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JeseniceLWWDL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
IlirijaDLWWW
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
JeseniceIlirija
28.9Attack66.7
24.4Defence100.0
20.0Form100.0
27.0Power88.7
0.75xG2.45