Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jesenice · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jesenice 2-2 Brežice
Original prediction
Jesenice
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 52.3% | 43.1% | -9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.0% | 27.1% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 3.78 | 23.7% | 29.8% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.74 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Jesenice
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Jesenice has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JeseniceLWWWL
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
BrežiceDLLLL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
JeseniceBrežice
0.0Attack16.7
0.0Defence0.0
0.0Form0.0
7.0Power11.2
1.63xG1.27