Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
jerv · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
jerv 4-3 Sotra
Original prediction
jerv
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 52.4% | 48.1% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.2% | 22.8% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.85 | 23.4% | 29.1% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.72 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–07%
Predicted outcome
jerv
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
jerv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
jervDDWWL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SotraWLWLD
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
jervSotra
71.0Attack72.7
66.7Defence65.2
76.8Form62.1
72.7Power65.2
1.66xG1.31