Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
jerv · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
jerv 1-0 Notodden
Original prediction
jerv
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 59.6% | 44.3% | -15.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.18 | 21.6% | 26.2% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 4.82 | 18.8% | 29.5% | 10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
jerv
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
jerv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
jervWLWWW
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
NotoddenWLDWD
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
jervNotodden
59.0Attack100.0
57.7Defence100.0
61.5Form100.0
60.9Power97.0
1.70xG1.42