Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
jerv · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (12%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
jerv 2-2 Arendal
Original prediction
jerv
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.31 | 69.6% | 64.0% | -5.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.00 | 18.2% | 20.0% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 7.42 | 12.2% | 16.0% | 3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–012%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
jerv
Probability
64.0%
Model confidence
64.0%
jerv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
jervDWWLW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ArendalLLLLW
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
jervArendal
71.2Attack45.5
68.2Defence42.4
78.8Form39.4
73.9Power43.7
2.93xG0.73