JEF United Chibavs
V-varen Nagasaki
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 10/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
V-varen Nagasaki · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
JEF United Chiba 1-1 V-varen Nagasaki
Original prediction
V-varen Nagasaki
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.72 | 34.4% | 29.7% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 28.3% | 24.9% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 2.51 | 37.3% | 45.4% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.30 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
V-varen Nagasaki
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
V-varen Nagasaki has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00