JEF United Chibavs
Fagiano Okayama
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 9/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fagiano Okayama · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
JEF United Chiba 1-2 Fagiano Okayama
Original prediction
Fagiano Okayama
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.88 | 24.2% | 27.3% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 26.3% | 27.3% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.89 | 49.5% | 45.4% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.89 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Fagiano Okayama
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Fagiano Okayama has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80