Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jarun · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jarun 4-4 Zagora
Original prediction
Jarun
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 41.6% | 39.4% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.5% | 27.7% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.84 | 32.0% | 32.9% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.43 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Jarun
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Jarun has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JarunDDLDL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 2/5
ZagoraWLWLL
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
JarunZagora
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.56xG1.33