Jarunvs
Varteks Varaždin
COMPLETEDCroatia · Second NL · 10/10/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jarun · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jarun 1-0 Varteks Varaždin
Original prediction
Jarun
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 62.1% | 43.7% | -18.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.13 | 22.0% | 27.4% | 5.4 pts |
| Away | 5.68 | 16.0% | 28.9% | 13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Jarun
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Jarun has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JarunWDDWD
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Varteks VaraždinDDLWL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
JarunVarteks Varaždin
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.60xG1.36