Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jarun · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jarun 2-2 Bjelovar
Original prediction
Jarun
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.06 | 43.8% | 37.1% | -6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 25.9% | 27.3% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.99 | 30.3% | 35.6% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Jarun
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Jarun has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JarunDWWDD
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BjelovarWLDDW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
JarunBjelovar
70.8Attack77.8
50.0Defence55.6
58.3Form63.0
61.6Power64.2
1.92xG2.08