Jarosławvs
Star Starachowice
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 4 · 8/29/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jarosław · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jarosław 3-0 Star Starachowice
Original prediction
Jarosław
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 47.3% | 49.8% | 2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.7% | 24.0% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.22 | 28.0% | 26.2% | -1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.91 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Jarosław
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Jarosław has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60