III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4
Saturday, 1 August 202616:30Updated today
Jarosław

Jarosław

Home
W
vs
16:30
Sokół Kolb.

Sokół Kolb.

Away
LW
GoalVio prediction
41% confidence
Jarosław(41%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Jarosław
41%
Draw
27%
Sokół Kolb.
32%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Jarosław
99
Sokół Kolb.
54
Defence
Jarosław
66
Sokół Kolb.
46
Momentum
Jarosław
100
Sokół Kolb.
50
Danger (xG)
Jarosław
3.60
Sokół Kolb.
1.35
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 2.33 xG for Jarosław and 1.23 xG for Sokół Kolb. — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Jarosław holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's meaningful attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 3.56 — high attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating high xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Jarosław's Attack Score (99) vs Sokół Kolb.'s Defensive Stability (46) and Sokół Kolb.'s attack (54) vs Jarosław's defence (66) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Jarosław)
3.60
avg per match
xG for (Sokół Kolb.)
1.35
avg per match
xG against (Jarosław)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Sokół Kolb.)
1.35
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
JarosławJarosław
W
Sokół Kolb.Sokół Kolb.
LW

Probability breakdown

41% confidence
Jarosław41%
Draw27%
Sokół Kolb.32%

Jarosław leads with 41% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Jarosław Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Jarosław host Sokół Kolb. in III Liga - Group 4. Jarosław have recorded WDWDLW in recent matches while Sokół Kolb. arrive with a run of LWWDWW.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 2.33 expected goals for Jarosław against 1.23 for Sokół Kolb. — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Jarosław's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 62% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: ⚽ Attacking Efficiency Jarosław have averaged 2.41 goals per game recently while Sokół Kolb. have managed 1.50. Jarosław carry the sharper attacking edge — a factor the model weighs in its Jarosław win projection.

Why GoalVio backs this

Jarosław are generating a commanding xG advantage — 2.33 projected against 1.23 for Sokół Kolb.. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 1.10 is the clearest signal in the model that Jarosław are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: Sokół Kolb. have won 4 of their last 10 matches — a run of form the model acknowledges but cannot fully override. If Sokół Kolb. carry that momentum into this fixture and score first, the upset probability rises significantly above what the headline verdict suggests.

Risk factors

  • Sokół Kolb. are in decent form with 4 wins from their last 10 matches — an upset cannot be ruled out.
  • Jarosław have been conceding 1.73 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.

Recent form

Jarosław

Jarosław

W
@ Czarni Połaniec
15 Jul 2026
41
Sokół Kolb.

Sokół Kolb.

L
@ KSZO 1929
16 May 2026
12
W
vs Czarni Połaniec
13 May 2026
21

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Jarosław vs Sokół Kolb.?

GoalVio's model predicts Jarosław to win with 41% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Jarosław vs Sokół Kolb.?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Jarosław vs Sokół Kolb.?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Jarosław vs Sokół Kolb.?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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