Jarosławvs
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 4 · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jarosław · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jarosław 5-2 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
Original prediction
Jarosław
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 51.7% | 64.7% | 13.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.6% | 18.4% | -5.1 pts |
| Away | 3.64 | 24.7% | 16.9% | -7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–09%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
Jarosław
Probability
64.7%
Model confidence
64.7%
Jarosław has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60