Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jarosław · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-2 (7%), 4-2 (6%), 3-3 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jarosław 1-3 Naprzód
Original prediction
Jarosław
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 56.7% | 57.1% | 0.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.18 | 21.8% | 17.4% | -4.4 pts |
| Away | 4.22 | 21.6% | 25.5% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–27%
- 2.4–26%
- 3.3–36%
Predicted outcome
Jarosław
Probability
57.1%
Model confidence
57.1%
Jarosław has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JarosławDWLWW
GF 17 · GA 9 · avg 3.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
NaprzódWWWDD
GF 15 · GA 7 · avg 3.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
JarosławNaprzód
86.7Attack80.0
43.3Defence33.3
56.7Form56.7
61.0Power57.3
3.69xG2.50