Jarosławvs
Korona Kielce II
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 4 · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jarosław · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jarosław 6-2 Korona Kielce II
Original prediction
Jarosław
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 52.3% | 55.2% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.93 | 22.9% | 20.5% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 3.64 | 24.7% | 24.3% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.72 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Jarosław
Probability
55.2%
Model confidence
55.2%
Jarosław has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20