Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VPS II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-4 (7%), 3-4 (7%), 2-5 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jaro 2 1-4 VPS II
Original prediction
VPS II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.41 | 26.4% | 26.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.42 | 20.4% | 17.1% | -3.2 pts |
| Away | 1.69 | 53.2% | 56.8% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–47%
- 2.3–47%
- 3.2–56%
Predicted outcome
VPS II
Probability
56.8%
Model confidence
56.8%
VPS II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Jaro 2LDLLL
GF 7 · GA 16 · avg 1.40/3.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
VPS IIWLLWL
GF 12 · GA 17 · avg 2.40/3.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Jaro 2VPS II
60.0Attack88.3
3.3Defence25.0
43.3Form46.7
37.5Power52.1
2.96xG4.50