Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C
Saturday, 18 July 2026Last updated 12:33
Jaro 2

Jaro 2

Home
LLL
20
Full time
TP-47

TP-47

Away
L
Project Liv Arena
GoalVio prediction
38% confidence
Draw(35%)
Win probability
Jaro 2
33%
Draw
35%
TP-47
32%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Jaro 2
47
TP-47
94
Defence
Jaro 2
0
TP-47
1
Momentum
Jaro 2
0
TP-47
0
Danger (xG)
Jaro 2
1.20
TP-47
2.70
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.40 xG for Jaro 2 and 1.35 xG for TP-47. TP-47's projected xG of 1.35 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 1-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.75 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.

xG for (Jaro 2)
1.20
avg per match
xG for (TP-47)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Jaro 2)
4.80
avg per match
xG against (TP-47)
3.60
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Jaro 2Jaro 2
LLLL
TP-47TP-47
LW

Probability breakdown

38% confidence
Jaro 233%
Draw35%
TP-4732%

Draw leads with 35% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Jaro 2 vs TP-47: Model Points to a Closely-Fought Draw

Jaro 2 take on TP-47 in Kakkonen - Lohko C.

Key factors

: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Jaro 2's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 53% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk TP-47 have won 0 of their last 5 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Jaro 2 carry the stronger underlying metrics, TP-47's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

There is a significant mismatch between Jaro 2's Attack Score (47) and TP-47's Defensive Stability (1). Jaro 2 create chances at a rate that TP-47's defensive record suggests they will struggle to contain — this structural imbalance is the most fixture-specific reason the model projects a Jaro 2 win.

Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Jaro 2, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If TP-47 score first, the game becomes genuinely open.

Risk factors

  • Jaro 2 have been conceding 2.74 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • The xG gap is narrow at 0.04 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Head to head

Jaro 2 0Draws 01 TP-47
Avg goals: 4.0BTTS in 1/1
16 May 2026
Jaro 2
L13
TP-47

Recent form

Jaro 2

Jaro 2

L
@ Vaajakoski
12 Jul 2026
25
L
vs SJK-juniorit
8 Jul 2026
23
L
@ Kraft
4 Jul 2026
08
L
@ TP-47
16 May 2026
13
TP-47

TP-47

L
vs GBK
4 Jul 2026
34
W
vs Jaro 2
16 May 2026
31

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Jaro 2 vs TP-47?

GoalVio's model predicts a draw with 38% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Jaro 2 vs TP-47?

A predicted scoreline has not yet been generated for this fixture.

Will both teams score in Jaro 2 vs TP-47?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Jaro 2 vs TP-47?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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