Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2
Wednesday, 1 July 2026Last updated 10:12
Jaraguá

Jaraguá

Home
LL
03
Full time
Tubarao

Tubarao

Away
LLW
GoalVio prediction
64% confidence
Tubarao(64%)
Most likely exact score0-2
Prediction correct— Result: Tubarao
Win probability
Jaraguá
12%
Draw
24%
Tubarao
64%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Jaraguá
9
Tubarao
73
Defence
Jaraguá
14
Tubarao
39
Momentum
Jaraguá
0
Tubarao
33
Danger (xG)
Jaraguá
0.00
Tubarao
1.80
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Jaraguá)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Tubarao)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Jaraguá)
2.25
avg per match
xG against (Tubarao)
1.50
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
JaraguáJaraguá
LLL
TubaraoTubarao
LLWD

Probability breakdown

64% confidence
Jaraguá12%
Draw24%
Tubarao64%

Tubarao leads with 64% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Jaraguá head into this in Catarinense - 2 fixture in mixed form (LL), while Tubarao arrive in mixed form (LLW). Jaraguá have a 0% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 33% for Tubarao over 3 games.

Tactically, Tubarao hold the edge. Their strong attack (73/100) is pitted against a vulnerable Jaraguá defence (14/100), while Jaraguá's attack faces a leaky Tubarao backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.

Jaraguá have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 2 home games. They average 0.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per home match. Tubarao have won 1 of their last 3 away fixtures, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per away game.

Tubarao have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The GoalVio engine projects Tubarao to win with 64% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 0-2. Win probabilities: Jaraguá 1219%, Draw 2355%, Tubarao 6426%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Jaraguá 0Draws 01 Tubarao
Avg goals: 3.0
1 Jul 2026
Jaraguá
L03
Tubarao

Recent form

Jaraguá

Jaraguá

L
vs Nação
15 Jul 2026
02
L
vs Tubarao
1 Jul 2026
03
L
@ Blumenau
10 Jun 2026
06
Tubarao

Tubarao

L
@ Caravaggio
15 Jul 2026
12
L
vs Metropolitano
12 Jul 2026
23
W
@ Jaraguá
1 Jul 2026
30
D
@ Nação
12 May 2026
00

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Jaraguá vs Tubarao?

GoalVio's model predicts Tubarao to win with 64% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Jaraguá vs Tubarao?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-2.

Will both teams score in Jaraguá vs Tubarao?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Jaraguá vs Tubarao?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more