Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Jarabacoa 0-0 Moca, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Jarabacoa 0-1 Moca
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.79 | 31.8% | 34.8% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 28.7% | 30.4% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.24 | 39.5% | 34.8% | -4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Projected Score
Jarabacoa 0–0 Moca
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.4%
Model confidence
34.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JarabacoaLWLDW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
MocaDDDDW
GF 2 · GA 1 · avg 0.40/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
JarabacoaMoca
22.2Attack0.0
66.7Defence100.0
33.3Form33.3
42.2Power48.3
0.98xG0.91