Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Japan · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Japan 2-1 Venezuela
Original prediction
Japan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.26 | 73.8% | 50.1% | -23.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.37 | 17.3% | 26.5% | 9.3 pts |
| Away | 10.31 | 9.0% | 23.4% | 14.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.26 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Japan
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Japan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JapanWWWWW
GF 9 · GA 1 · avg 1.80/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
VenezuelaWLLWL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
JapanVenezuela
50.0Attack33.3
91.7Defence80.0
100.0Form66.7
84.6Power63.4
1.25xG0.82