Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Japan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Japan 3-1 Uruguay
Original prediction
Japan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 49.6% | 46.9% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.8% | 26.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.94 | 23.6% | 26.8% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.88 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Japan
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Japan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JapanWWWWW
GF 8 · GA 0 · avg 1.60/0.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
UruguayDDLDW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
JapanUruguay
100.0Attack75.0
66.7Defence75.0
79.2Form83.3
79.4Power78.6
1.85xG1.17