Japan U23vs
Thailand U23
COMPLETEDWorld · Asian Games · 9/23/2026, 10:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Japan U23 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Japan U23 3-0 Thailand U23
Original prediction
Japan U23
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.08 | 84.1% | 45.9% | -38.2 pts |
| Draw | 8.18 | 11.1% | 23.4% | 12.3 pts |
| Away | 18.72 | 4.8% | 30.6% | 25.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-38.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Japan U23
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Japan U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 1.33/1.33
GF 13 · GA 14 · avg 2.60/2.80