Japan U23vs
Korea DPR U23
COMPLETEDWorld · Asian Games · 9/26/2026, 10:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Japan U23 · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Japan U23 1-0 Korea DPR U23
Original prediction
Japan U23
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.18 | 77.7% | 58.0% | -19.7 pts |
| Draw | 6.10 | 15.0% | 22.6% | 7.6 pts |
| Away | 12.45 | 7.3% | 19.4% | 12.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Japan U23
Probability
58.0%
Model confidence
58.0%
Japan U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00