Japan U23vs
Hong Kong U23
COMPLETEDWorld · Asian Games · 9/16/2026, 10:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Japan U23 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Japan U23 2-0 Hong Kong U23
Original prediction
Japan U23
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.01 | 94.3% | 53.7% | -40.5 pts |
| Draw | 22.63 | 4.2% | 20.4% | 16.2 pts |
| Away | 63.00 | 1.5% | 25.9% | 24.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-40.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Japan U23
Probability
53.7%
Model confidence
53.7%
Japan U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/1.50