Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jamaica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jamaica 0-1 Honduras
Original prediction
Jamaica
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 43.4% | 40.2% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.2% | 26.2% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.23 | 28.4% | 33.6% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Jamaica
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Jamaica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JamaicaWDLWW
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
HondurasLLDLL
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
JamaicaHonduras
66.7Attack52.4
50.0Defence71.4
66.7Form47.6
63.0Power55.1
1.54xG1.43