Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jamaica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jamaica 3-2 Guatemala
Original prediction
Jamaica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 50.0% | 42.1% | -7.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 28.1% | 27.2% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.18 | 22.0% | 30.7% | 8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Jamaica
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Jamaica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JamaicaDLWWW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
GuatemalaLLLLD
GF 2 · GA 15 · avg 0.40/3.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
JamaicaGuatemala
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.94xG1.66