Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jaiyq · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jaiyq 1-2 Arys
Original prediction
Jaiyq
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 44.8% | 41.6% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.0% | 27.1% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.98 | 30.2% | 31.3% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Jaiyq
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Jaiyq has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JaiyqLDDLW
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ArysWWWWW
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
JaiyqArys
30.7Attack44.0
58.7Defence40.0
42.7Form40.0
46.1Power42.8
1.22xG1.01