Jahn Regensburgvs
Fortuna Dusseldorf
COMPLETEDGermany · 3. Liga · 9/15/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fortuna Dusseldorf · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jahn Regensburg 1-2 Fortuna Dusseldorf
Original prediction
Fortuna Dusseldorf
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.78 | 32.4% | 35.6% | 3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.6% | 25.8% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 41.0% | 38.6% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Fortuna Dusseldorf
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Fortuna Dusseldorf has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60