Jagielloniavs
Wisla Plock
COMPLETEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 10/25/2026, 1:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jagiellonia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jagiellonia 1-0 Wisla Plock
Original prediction
Jagiellonia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 48.0% | 46.6% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.8% | 25.2% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.52 | 26.2% | 28.2% | 1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.93 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Jagiellonia
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Jagiellonia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00