Jagielloniavs
Polonia Warszawa
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies Clubs · 10/3/2026, 10:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jagiellonia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jagiellonia 1-2 Polonia Warszawa
Original prediction
Jagiellonia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 09:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 59.1% | 48.0% | -11.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.23 | 21.5% | 26.1% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 4.70 | 19.4% | 26.0% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Jagiellonia
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
Jagiellonia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60