Jagielloniavs
Legia Warszawa
COMPLETEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 9/20/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Legia Warszawa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jagiellonia 1-3 Legia Warszawa
Original prediction
Legia Warszawa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.66 | 34.8% | 35.4% | 0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 27.3% | 28.0% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.44 | 37.9% | 36.7% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Legia Warszawa
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Legia Warszawa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60