EkstraklasaEkstraklasa
Saturday, 25 July 2026Last updated 12:40
Jagiellonia

Jagiellonia

Home
WW
10
Full time
Korona Kielce

Korona Kielce

Away
LD
Chorten Arena
GoalVio prediction
44% confidence
Jagiellonia(44%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
Jagiellonia
44%
Draw
26%
Korona Kielce
30%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Jagiellonia
54
Korona Kielce
9
Defence
Jagiellonia
82
Korona Kielce
66
Momentum
Jagiellonia
100
Korona Kielce
17
Danger (xG)
Jagiellonia
1.35
Korona Kielce
0.00
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Jagiellonia)
1.35
avg per match
xG for (Korona Kielce)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Jagiellonia)
0.45
avg per match
xG against (Korona Kielce)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
JagielloniaJagiellonia
WWDW
Korona KielceKorona Kielce
LDW

Probability breakdown

44% confidence
Jagiellonia44%
Draw26%
Korona Kielce30%

Jagiellonia leads with 44% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Jagiellonia head into this in Ekstraklasa fixture at Chorten Arena in decent form (WW), while Korona Kielce arrive in mixed form (LD). Jagiellonia have a 100% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 0% for Korona Kielce over 2 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Jagiellonia (82/100) and Korona Kielce (66/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Jagiellonia have won all 1 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. Korona Kielce have limited away data in the engine at this stage.

There is no head-to-head data between Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Jagiellonia to win with 44% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Jagiellonia 4377%, Draw 2624%, Korona Kielce 2999%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Recent form

Jagiellonia

Jagiellonia

W
@ FC Nordsjaelland
17 Jul 2026
21
W
vs Sparta Praha
16 Jul 2026
10
D
@ GKS Katowice
17 May 2026
22
W
@ Raków Częstochowa
13 May 2026
20
Korona Kielce

Korona Kielce

L
vs Nieciecza
17 Jul 2026
02
D
vs Stal Rzeszów
14 Jul 2026
00
W
vs Widzew Łódź
15 May 2026
10

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce?

GoalVio's model predicts Jagiellonia to win with 44% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more