Jagielloniavs
Gornik Zabrze
COMPLETEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 10/10/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gornik Zabrze · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jagiellonia 1-3 Gornik Zabrze
Original prediction
Gornik Zabrze
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.56 | 36.1% | 24.5% | -11.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.8% | 24.1% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 36.1% | 51.4% | 15.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–211%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Gornik Zabrze
Probability
51.4%
Model confidence
51.4%
Gornik Zabrze has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60