Jagielloniavs
Ararat-Armenia
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/15/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jagiellonia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jagiellonia 3-1 Ararat-Armenia
Original prediction
Jagiellonia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 06:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 67.7% | 56.6% | -11.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.86 | 19.5% | 23.3% | 3.8 pts |
| Away | 7.37 | 12.8% | 20.1% | 7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Jagiellonia
Probability
56.6%
Model confidence
56.6%
Jagiellonia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20