Jagielloniavs
Anderlecht
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/22/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Anderlecht · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jagiellonia 0-3 Anderlecht
Original prediction
Anderlecht
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 06:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.04 | 31.0% | 36.5% | 5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.9% | 26.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.25 | 42.0% | 37.1% | -4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Anderlecht
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Anderlecht has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80