Jagiellonia IIvs
Troszyn
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 1 · 10/14/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jagiellonia II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jagiellonia II 0-1 Troszyn
Original prediction
Jagiellonia II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 53.7% | 39.9% | -13.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 23.2% | 26.7% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 3.91 | 23.1% | 33.4% | 10.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Jagiellonia II
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Jagiellonia II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 12 · avg 2.80/2.40
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60