GGOALVIO

Poland · Cup · 9/26/2023, 10:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Korona Kielce · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Jagiellonia II are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DDLLL), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Korona Kielce are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLDWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Korona Kielce hold a 45.4-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 69.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.2% in the Cup, while Korona Kielce holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Korona Kielce

Probability

44.2%

Model confidence

44.2%

Korona Kielce has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Jagiellonia IIDDLLL

GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40

BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Korona KielceDLDWL

GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Jagiellonia IIKorona Kielce
33.3Attack75.0
33.3Defence50.0
0.0Form75.0
23.7Power69.1
1.43xG2.02
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