Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Izhevsk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Izhevsk 2-1 Ural II
Original prediction
Izhevsk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.4% | 47.5% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.4% | 23.1% | -5.4 pts |
| Away | 3.29 | 27.2% | 29.5% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Izhevsk
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
47.5%
Izhevsk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IzhevskWLLDL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Ural IIDWLWL
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
IzhevskUral II
44.0Attack50.7
49.3Defence36.0
34.7Form34.7
44.3Power41.6
1.82xG1.40