Izhevskvs
Orenburg II
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 4 · 10/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Izhevsk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Izhevsk 3-1 Orenburg II
Original prediction
Izhevsk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 09:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 54.7% | 41.3% | -13.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.42 | 21.5% | 26.1% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 4.00 | 23.8% | 32.6% | 8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Izhevsk
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Izhevsk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20