Iwakivs
Ventforet Kofu
COMPLETEDJapan · J2 League · 10/18/2026, 4:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Iwaki · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Iwaki 5-0 Ventforet Kofu
Original prediction
Iwaki
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 52.6% | 56.3% | 3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.9% | 23.2% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 4.25 | 21.5% | 20.5% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Iwaki
Probability
56.3%
Model confidence
56.3%
Iwaki has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IwakiWLLLW
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Ventforet KofuWLLLL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
IwakiVentforet Kofu
43.3Attack30.0
43.3Defence40.0
40.0Form33.3
44.3Power37.6
1.70xG0.91