Iwakivs
Vegalta Sendai
COMPLETEDJapan · J2 League · 9/26/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vegalta Sendai · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Iwaki 0-2 Vegalta Sendai
Original prediction
Vegalta Sendai
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.31 | 27.6% | 28.7% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.6% | 28.2% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.04 | 44.8% | 43.0% | -1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.04 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Vegalta Sendai
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Vegalta Sendai has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80