Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Ituano are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Confiança are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Ituano hold an 11.2-point power-rating edge (50.6 v 39.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.8% in the Serie C, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 22% BTTS chance and 15% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20