Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ituano · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Ituano are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Anápolis are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Ituano hold an 8.8-point power-rating edge (50.6 v 41.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.4% in the Serie C, while Ituano holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 30% BTTS chance and 22% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ituano
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Ituano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80