World · World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · 10/13/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Italy W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Italy W 1-1 Belarus W
Original prediction
Italy W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.02 | 92.3% | 52.9% | -39.4 pts |
| Draw | 14.86 | 6.3% | 23.4% | 17.1 pts |
| Away | 67.57 | 1.4% | 23.7% | 22.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 13.86 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-39.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Italy W
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
52.9%
Italy W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 2 · avg 2.60/0.40
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60