Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Italy · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Italy 3-1 Türkiye
Original prediction
Italy
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 68.7% | 56.7% | -12.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.07 | 18.7% | 23.4% | 4.7 pts |
| Away | 7.53 | 12.6% | 20.0% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Italy
Probability
56.7%
Model confidence
56.7%
Italy has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ItalyDWLWW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
TürkiyeLLLWW
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
ItalyTürkiye
55.6Attack11.1
55.6Defence11.1
44.4Form0.0
51.4Power13.7
1.94xG0.90