Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Italy · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Italy 0-2 Belgium
Original prediction
Italy
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 42.7% | 51.8% | 9.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.6% | 23.5% | -3.2 pts |
| Away | 3.07 | 30.7% | 24.7% | -6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Italy
Probability
51.8%
Model confidence
51.8%
Italy has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ItalyWWDLL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BelgiumWWDWW
GF 16 · GA 3 · avg 3.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ItalyBelgium
70.8Attack41.7
45.8Defence50.0
58.3Form29.2
59.5Power41.2
2.23xG1.17